近日，美國OpenAI研發的聊天機器人程序ChatGPT爆火，相關話題多次引發熱議。

Recently, ChatGPT, a chatbot developed by OpenAI, went viral with related topics generating a lot of buzz.

類似ChatGPT一樣的聊天機器人等人工智能工具可以迅速生成越來越復雜的書面內容，并已被用于執行各種任務。

Chatbots and artificial intelligence tools like ChatGPT that can almost instantly produce increasingly sophisticated written content are already being used to perform a variety of tasks.

就在昨天，#可能被ChatGPT取代的10個職業#又登上了熱搜，這個危機感爆棚的問題讓網友炸了……

“用魔法打敗魔法（Magic must defeat magic）”，ChatGPT到底會影響哪些職業？我們直接把這一問題拋給了ChatGPT。

ChatGPT先謙虛了一把：“作為一個語言模型（language model），我并沒有預測未來的能力。”

進而，它說：“因為有我這樣的技術，目前由人類完成的一些任務可能會實現自動化或進一步簡化。”

Further on, it says, “…but it is likely that some tasks currently performed by people may become automated or streamlined by technology like me…”

隨后ChatGPT列舉了四類這樣的工作：

最后，它“求生欲滿滿”地補充道：“然而，重要的是，請注意，雖然有些任務可能會實現自動化，但像我這樣的技術也可以幫助和提升人類工作者，使他們在工作中更加多產、高效。”

圖源：Chris Vallance

具體怎樣的工作會受影響？這背后的邏輯是什么？再來聽聽人類專家的解答。

美國哥倫比亞廣播公司（CBS News）總結了短期內最有可能被ChatGPT和類似的AI工具取代的五項工作任務：

ChatGPT能為應用程序和軟件編寫代碼，能檢查人類程序員編程語言的錯誤，還能將簡單的想法從英語轉化成程序語言。

ChatGPT can write computer code to program applications and software. It can check human coders' language for errors and convert ideas from plain English into programming language.

但這意味著基礎的編程工作可能不再需要由人類完成。

哥倫比亞商學院教授歐迪·內策爾（Oded Netzer）說：“如果只是把一個點子轉化成代碼，那完全可以由機器來做。因此在某種程度上，我們確實不需要那么多程序員了，它可能會搶走工作崗位。但它也將幫助那些編程人員發現代碼中的錯誤，并更有效地編寫代碼。”

"If you are writing a code where really all you do is convert an idea to a code, the machine can do that. To the extent we would need fewer programmers, it could take away jobs. But it would also help those who program to find mistakes in codes and write code more efficiently," Netzer said. 

內策爾也談到，基于管理目的設置的電子郵件，例如安排或取消會議，也可以直接外包（outsource）給ChatGPT。

Writing simple administrative or scheduling emails for things like setting up or canceling appointments could also easily be outsourced to a tool like ChatGPT, according to Netzer. 

“這種郵件幾乎不需要任何創造力。所以，既然能直接對機器說‘我要在這天預約一個會議’，為什么要費力去寫完整的郵件呢？”

"There's hardly any creativity involved, so why would we write the whole thing instead of saying to the machine, 'I need to set a meeting on this date,'" he said.

麻省理工學院經濟學家 大衛?奧特爾（David Autor）指出，AI可以接手一些中級白領的工作，例如撰寫人力資源信函、廣告文案和新聞稿。

David Autor, an MIT economist who specializes in labor, pointed to some mid-level white-collar jobs as functions that can be handled by AI, including work like writing human resources letters, producing advertising copy and drafting press releases.

“機器人最有可能介入那些憑感覺就能完成的單調的工作。毫無疑問，軟件會使這些工作的成本降低。”

"Bots will be much more in the realm of people who do a mixture of intuitive and mundane tasks,” he said. “There is no question that software will make them cheaper.”

創意產業也可能受到影響。世界上最大的廣告和公關集團WPP的創始人蘇銘天爵士（Sir Martin Sorrell）預測，五年之內公司決策和購買廣告位（ad space）的方式將實現自動化。

Creative industries are likely to be affected, too. Noted advertising executive Sir Martin Sorrell, founder of WPP, the world's largest ad and PR group, said on a recent panel that he expects the way companies buy ad space will become automated "in a highly effective way" within five years. 

他認為最大的改變是，機器能幫助公司“收集數據（pool the data）”，從而優化購買決策。

人工智能專家和法律專業人士表示，ChatGPT的能力很好地適用于法律行業。事實上，ChatGPT的機器人最近通過了一項法學院考試，在撰寫從憲法到稅收和侵權等主題的論文后獲得了及格分數。

ChatGPT's abilities translate well to the legal profession, according to AI experts as well as legal professionals. In fact, ChatGPT's bot recently passed a law school exam and earned a passing grade after writing essays on topics ranging from constitutional law to taxation and torts.

常見的法律文書，例如房屋租聘協議（home lease agreements）、遺囑和保密協議（wills and nondisclosure agreements），都是高度標準化的，可以由先進的機器人來起草。

內策爾說：“雖然某些部分需要人工編寫，但90%的法律文書都是復制粘貼的。我們沒有理由不讓機器來撰寫這部分文件。”

"There are parts of a legal document that humans need to adapt to a particular situation, but 90% of the document is copy pasted," Netzer said. "There is no reason why we would not have the machine write these kinds of legal documents."